基于改进GM(1,1)模型的猪肉价格预测研究
Prediction of pork price based on improved GM(1,1) model
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摘要: 针对猪肉价格受多因素影响、难以运用固定的数学模型进行精确预测的问题,提出一种改进的GM(1,1)模型.该模型主要通过改善GM(1,1)的背景值和运用M次累加的方法对灰色模型进行残差校正,进而把猪肉价格变化当作一个灰色系统,采用等维递补的方法预测猪肉价格的发展走势.以吉林省猪肉价格为依据,用改进的GM(1,1)模型预测未来猪肉的价格较原始GM(1,1)模型预测精度更好.这表明,改进模型对于提高生产者的收益、促进猪肉市场的良性发展具有现实意义.Abstract: Aiming at the price of pork influenced by many factors,and the difficulty to use fixed mathematical model to predict them accurately, an improved GM(1,1) model was presented. This model used improved background value and M accumulating generation operator(AGO) method residual correction, took the changes of pork's price as a gray system,and used dimensions additional methods to predict the development trend of the price. The prediction accuracy was better. Taking the pork price in Jilin Province as an example,using improved GM(1,1) model to forecast the future price of pork had practical significance for improving the producer income and promoting benign development of pork market.
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