基于马尔柯夫过程的交叉路口车流量预测模型研究
Study on vehicle flowrate prediction model of crossroads based on Markov process
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摘要: 为了预测城市交叉路口交通控制系统中每个相位的车辆流量,进而在一个信号周期内合理分配每个相位的时间,建立了交叉路口车流量预测模型.该模型运用马尔柯夫分析方法,把各相位定义为当前状态,经片段时候后,系统只要掌握转化为另一状态的可能性,即可制订出相应的控制策略.试验结果表明该算法预测的车流量与实测车流量之间的误差比较小,在短时预测车流量方面是可行的.
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关键词:
- 马尔柯夫过程 /
- 交叉路口短时交通预测 /
- 车流量预测
Abstract: In order to predict the flow of vehicles of the each phase in the crossroads traffic controlling system,which can reasonable distribute the time of the each phase in one signal period,the vehicle flowrate prediction model of crossroads was built,this model uses the Markov analysis method and define the each phase as the current state,after the fragment of the time, as long as the system master the possibility of the transform the phase to another phase, the system can work out the corresponding control strategy.Experimental results showed that the errors between prediction of the flow of vehicles and the actual flow were small,and the method was feasible in the short-term traffic prediction. -
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